03/06/2026

Solar activity continued at low levels with isolated C-class
flaring. Regions 4381 and 4384 remained the primary drivers of
activity. The largest event of the period was a C2.9 flare from
Region 4381 on March 3. Region 4384 continues to rotate further onto
the disk, but foreshortening still hinders a definitive
characterization of its magnetic complexity. Region 4378 showed some
new flux emergence but remained mostly inactive.
ÿ
Region 4383 simplified into a unipolar group following the loss of
its trailing spots, while Region 4380 decayed to plage. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
ÿ
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/minor-moderate) through March 6.

A brief description of Sunspots can be found on the Space Weather
Prediction Center website at, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle[1] .
ÿ
Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of a positive polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Solar wind speed increased
to 450 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced
due to the ongoing influence of the +CH HSS. Residual enhancements
are likely to persist, keeping conditions slightly above background
levels before another enhancement is expected with the onset of a
negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS).ÿ Active
conditions are expected on March 7 and 8 as high-speed stream
influences continue.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, March 5, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Overall solar activity declined, with the number of sunspot groups
ranging between three and six over the past week. Their magnetic
configuration was simple, so no significant flares on the solar disk
was observed.

"However, the solar flux remained at a relatively high level of
130-148 s.f.u., which, together with a decrease in geomagnetic
activity (no major disturbances, just alternating calm and
moderately active days), resulted in improved conditions for
shortwave propagation.

"The current trend is expected to continue for the time being. A
change will be caused by a decline in solar activity in the second
decade of March. This will be very noticeable in the decline in
solar radio flux."

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on March 8, 11 and 12, and March 15 to
19 due to anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs.
The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to
moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Active conditions are likely on
March 10, 12, March 14 and 15, and March 20.ÿ Unsettled conditions
are likely on March 8 and 9, March 11, March 13, and March 16 to 19.
All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are associated with the
anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder
of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.

The current solar report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found
on YouTube at, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SoYfTnrudc[2] .

The Predicted Planetary A Index for March 7 to 13 is 5, 8, 10, 18,
10, 15, and 10, with a mean of 10.9.ÿ Predicted Planetary K Index is
2, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.1.ÿ 10.7-centimeter flux
is 156, 156, 150, 145, 140, 135, and 128, with a mean of 144.3.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[6] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

ÿ


[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle
[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SoYfTnrudc
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/13/2026

Solar activity was very low to low. Only low-level C-class activity
was observed from Regions 4384 and 4389. Slight growth was observed
in Regions 4384 and 4391. New Region 4392 was numbered. The rest of
the spot groups were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels,
with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) flares,
through March 14.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters were enhanced through March 11. Solar wind
speed ranged from approximately 480 to 570 km/s during this time but
decreased to around 400-460 km/s through the rest of the period.
ÿ
High Speed Stream activity persists through March 14.

Elevated probabilities are related to the flare potential of both
currently observed spot groups as well as the potential from
returning regions.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels March 16 to 19, and then on March 23
to 30 due to the influence from multiple, recurrent, Coronal Hole
High Speed Streams. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to
be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on March 14, 22, and 25 during the onset of
a CH HSS. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on March
21 due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active
levels are likely on March 15 to 20, 23 and 24, and on March 256 to
28. All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are associated with
the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The
remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet
levels.

The latest solar report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found
on YouTube at, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9gloRUmKAI[1] .

The Predicted Planetary A Index for March 14 to 20 is 20, 15, 10,
10, 10, 12, and 15, with a mean of 13.1.ÿ The Predicted Planetary K
Index is 5, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.1.ÿ 10.7
centimeter flux is 110, 110, 110, 110, 110, 105, and 110, with a
mean of 109.3.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[5] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
NNNN

ÿ


[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9gloRUmKAI
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://k9la.us/
[6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/03/2026

Solar activity has been at low levels with only C-class flares
produced by Regions 4401, 4405, and 4409. There were 9 numbered
active regions on the solar disk, with 4409 showing the most
significant growth during the period and producing the largest flares
on April 1. A new region emerged but it has not yet been numbered.
ÿ
Multiple filaments erupted during the day on April 1, producing
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in coronagraph imagery, but
their propagation modeling did not suggest impacts to Earth. The
exceptions are the ejecta first observed at GONG H-alpha images on
April 1.
ÿ
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1/R2-minor/moderate)
levels, with a slight chance for X-class (R3-strong) flares through
April 4, due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 4404, 4405
and 4409.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels with solar wind speed
averaging around 440 km/s.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere,ÿ April 2, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

The increase in overall solar activity during the third ten-day
period of March-albeit with a slight delay-led to a gradual rise in
MUF values, extending into the first days of April. An increase in
solar flare activity did not occur until April 30, beginning with a
flare at 0319 UT with an X-ray intensity of X1.4, which lasted a long
time and was accompanied by a CME. Since a large coronal hole No. 36
was located nearby, a significant increase in geomagnetic activity
was expected. This did not occur until April 2, but already during
several preceding active intervals, we could observe the effects of electromagnetic wave scattering on ionospheric inhomogeneities,
clearly visible even on ionograms.

Active region NOAA 4405, located 27 degrees south of the solar
equator, has been clearly visible for a week as the largest on the
solar disk and appears to be stable. On April 3, it passes the
central meridian, and its proximity to coronal hole No. 36 is a
potential source of intensified solar wind. It also indicates higher geomagnetic activity (at G2 level since April 2). This proximity will
likely be the cause of increased geomagnetic activity during the
first ten days of April. Consequently, this will lead to irregular
shortwave propagation conditions and more frequent drops in the MUF.

The next increase in solar activity will likely occur in the last
third of April. Daily MUF values will rise again, and at the same
time, a sporadic E layer will begin to appear occasionally in
mid-latitudes. Although it will not yet have a significant impact on
shortwave propagation, it will occasionally cause interesting DX
openings on the shortest shortwave bands.

The Predicted Planetary A Index for April 4 to April 10 is 22, 10,
15, 8, 7, 25, and 40 with a mean of 18.1. The Predicted Planetary K
Index is 5, 3, 4, 3, 2, 5, and 6 with a mean of 4. 145, 145, 135,
125, 118, 120, and 110 with a mean of 128.2

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1]ÿand the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[4]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQST.


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/10/2026

Solar activity remained at low levels this week. Most of the C-class activity came from either Region 4414 or Region 4409, which has developed a delta spot in its intermediary area. All remaining spots were either stable or in slight decay, with Region 4406 rotating over the west limb by the end of the reporting period.
ÿ
Coronal activity was observed in CCOR-1, LASCO and STEREO available imagery during the period. Of the four eruptions, one was far-sided, one was too narrow plus too far north of the ecliptic to have any Earth-directed component, and two had the potential for Earth-directed components. The first was associated with a C2.4 flare from Region 4414 while there was no clear source for the second. Modeling indicates these eruptions will pass behind Earth's orbit and no impact is anticipated. Eruptions potentially associated with the C8.9 are currently being analyzed. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was on Apr 9th 2026 at 08:45 UTC.
ÿ
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over April 9 to 11, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3/strong or greater) flares, driven primarily by the flare potential of Regions 4409 and 4414. The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 09 through Apr 11 2026 is 5 (.33NOAA scale G1).

A brief description of Sunspots can be found on the Space Weather
Prediction Center website at, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle[1]ÿ.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters reflected the transition out of a waning negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) into nominal conditions. Wind speeds continued to decline from a peak of ~500 km/s to near 400 km/s by the end of the period.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, April 9, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

Perhaps the biggest surprise in recent days was that, following the geomagnetic disturbance of April 2-3 (which had been expected, albeit a day earlier and with lower intensity), there were no further major surprises. Solar activity declined as predicted, whereas because it declined over a relatively long period, there was a greater-than-expected drop in critical frequencies in the F2 ionospheric region at mid-latitudes.

For forecasting developments in the second third of April, the 27-day cycle could serve as a relatively reliable guide this time. First of all, one might expect a one- to two-day increase in geomagnetic activity (which is also indicated by the presence of solar coronal holes near the central meridian), followed by relative calm. This is despite the short time that has elapsed since the eleven-year peak of solar activity.

The Predicted Planetary A Index for April 4 to April 10 is 5, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, and 2 with a mean of 2.8. The Predicted Planetary K Index is 18, 10, 8, 7, 5, 4, and 7 with a mean of 8.4. 10.7 centimeter flux is 106, 105, 108, 110, 115, 115, and 120 with a mean of 111.2.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2]ÿand the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[5]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQST.


[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://k9la.us/
[6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS